The AFL also plays a part in our first two Pipeline Inbox questions this week . . .
Did you see Kumar Rocker throw last night? Thoughts on the mechanic? They seemed much improved.
I watched some video of Rocker’s official pro debut on Wednesday, and the Rangers’ No. 9 prospect, looked a lot more like the guy who excelled for three years at Vanderbilt than the one who underwhelmed in the AFL last fall. Working for High-A Hickory, he pumped 41 of 53 pitches for strikes in five scoreless innings, allowing just two baserunners (both singles) while striking out eight.
After the Mets drafted him 10th overall in July 2021 but declined to sign him when a post-Draft physical revealed shoulder and elbow issues that led to shoulder surgery two months later, Rocker went third overall to the Rangers last July. Pitching in the AFL, he missed bats with his trademark slider but struggled to land his fastball for strikes or avoid barrels when he did. He operated from a clearly lower arm slot than in the past, reinforcing health concerns, and projected as a future reliever who would have to rely heavily on his slider.
On Wednesday, Rocker dealt from a higher arm slot, commanded his mid-90s fastball extremely well and had wipeout breaking stuff. It’s just one start, of course, but a highly encouraging one. If he can stay healthy and regain the form that made him college baseball’s biggest star for three years, the Rangers will have a frontline starter on their hands.
Forrest Whitley has looked sharp through two appearances. Has he turned the corner and again showing his #1 ceiling? — @knechtwithme18
I’ve never not seen Whitley, the Astros’ No. 20 prospect, look terrific on the mound in person, starting with the 2015 Under Armour All-America Game at Wrigley Field. I saw him dominate multiple times in the AFL in 2018 and 2019, when the right-hander led the league in strikeouts each year. I ran into him on the back fields in West Palm Beach, Fla., a couple of weeks ago and saw him run his fastball up to 98 mph and his cutter up to 92 in two scoreless innings.
I thought he’d establish himself in the Astros rotation in 2018 — and five years later, he still hasn’t made his big league debut. Repeated injuries didn’t help, nor did control and command woes, and he posted a 7.09 ERA in Triple-A last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. So far this season, he has allowed one run in two Triple-A starts, giving up two hits and three walks while fanning 11.
To answer your question, I’ll sign off on “turned the corner” but stop short of “again showing his No. 1 starter ceiling.” With the caveat that we’re dealing with an extremely small sample size, Whitley is showing more life on his four-seam fastball and is missing more bats with what can be a nasty changeup, so far in 2023. Oddly, he has gotten just one swing and miss on 32 slider/cutters and none on 25 two-seamers.
Though Whitley’s walk rate is down in an extremely small sample size, his strike percentage is actually down a tick compared to a year ago (60 percent from 61 percent). His control and command always have paled in comparison to his potential for five plus pitches. He’s still a wild card and at age 25, if he’s going to make a big league impact, it’s more likely going to be as a reliever than as a starter.
With high school seasons going now, who are some high school prospects that are climbing up draft boards? — @mjfb80
We’re in the process of expanding and updating MLB Pipeline’s Draft Top 100 Prospects list from December and there will be plenty of new names. I can think of at least seven players unranked on the Top 100 with a chance to go in the first two rounds in July. Listing them in alphabetical order:
Antonio Anderson, 3B, Tri-Cities HS (East Point, Ga.)
Alex Clemmey, LHP, Bishop Hendricken HS (Warwick, R.I.)
Wil Libbert, LHP, Blair Oaks HS (Wardsville, Mo.)
Landen Maroudis, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (Clearwater, Fla.)
Ethan McElvain, LHP, Nolensville HS (Tenn.)
Tai Peete, SS/RHP, Trinity Christian HS (Sharpsburg, Ga.)
Ralphy Velazquez, C/1B, Huntington Beach HS (Calif.)
Velazquez has the most helium among that group after going 6-for-13 at the National High School Invitational. He has a chance to hit for average and power and while there’s some question as to whether he can remain at catcher, he’s improving behind the plate. His bat should still profile at first base if he winds up moving.
When will you and Jonathan Mayo be coming out with your guys new mock drafts? — @czech_brandon
We’ll release our new Draft Top 150 in the last week of April, and the mock drafts will start coming after that. We alternate making projections, with the second mock usually coming two weeks after the first, and then weekly after that until the Draft begins on July 9 in Seattle. That should be the plan again this year, and we’ll have a Draft Top 200 in late May and a Draft Top 250 in late June as well.
